North and South Korea's meeting was brilliant
South Korea goes North and Kim Jong Un wants to meet with Trump.
When I started writing this article at the beginning of this week, I was excited about maybe one of the most important historical events in the past decade: the first meeting between North Korea supreme leader (Dictator) Kim Jong Un and South Korean officials.
As the week passed by, new developments emerged very fast in the international political scenario when Kim Jong Un agreed to meet with the president of the United States Donald Trump. And from that moment, all eyes shifted to what could be the most catastrophic peacebuilding meeting of the century.
First, let's talk about North and South Korea's meeting.
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA
The meeting between the two historical rivals was for me the most significant achievement in world peacebuilding in the past decades. In an unexpected move, South Korea officials went to North Korea to negotiate the denuclearization of the country and end the threat of Nuke War.
That is not what you would think looking at the photographs and officials videos, shared by North Korea state media. Kim Jong Un smiled broadly during dinner, with his wife at his side, having fun and being very charismatic to South Korea delegation and of course, the camera. That is because everything shared by the North Koreans regime has the objective to build its image in the world news. It's part of Kim Jong Un propaganda tactics, very similar to what we saw in the past weeks in the Winter Olympics when beautiful, happy, charismatic and enthusiastic North Korea cheerleaders were all around the news.
Nevertheless, the South Korea achievement in diplomacy is for me the most important aspect of this event and are all the more remarkable coming just months after a barrage of North Korean weapons tests and threats against Seoul and Washington. This shows how brilliant South Korea can be in the international relations with its more Chinese approach to diplomacy, and how much more significant and important they are in comparison to the USA, who in recent administration was only able to exchange tweets. The fact is that the USA is not the world leader or even an important political articulator as it was in the 80's and 90's. It continues to be the most important military force, but it seems to have more muscle than brain recently.
Apparently, the meeting was a diplomatic success, and so that is true, that South Korean announced Kim Jong Un interest in denuclearization and to meet with the United States President Donald Trump, his so declared archenemy.
President Trump big ego promptly accepted of course, and the meeting is scheduled to take place in May. But this sudden shift of North Korea should not be seen in good faith. If you remember, just a few months ago, this is the same crazy guy, who ordered the murderer of his brother-in-law Kim Jong Nam. His brother that was later killed in Kuala Lumpur airport by VX poisoning used as a chemical weapon - chemical weapons that are banned by the Hague Declaration of 1899 and the Versailles Treaty of 1919.
In conclusion, I think South Korea was just brilliant in its move towards getting closer to North Korea if its objective is to denuclearize North Korea and eventually end the dictatorial regime of Kim Jong Un. Also, the Asian approach to diplomacy seems to be getting stronger and maybe becoming the neo-diplomacy to peacebuilding in the long run.
UNITED STATES MEETING
I think we should see this meeting with the United States with skepticism. Yes, it is the first step forward in the past 25 years for Thermal Nuclear negotiations with North Korea, but there are a few scenarios I believe are possible outcomes of this meeting:
- It is possible that North Korea is lying and not at all interested in denuclearization and maybe they want to meet with the United States in order to win time.
- Another more possible and catastrophic scenario is North Korean making the most outrageous demands to denuclearization and the United States not agreeing with them. This would probably result in more mean tweets from Donald Trump, no resolution to the conflict and to create the best excuse Kim Jong Un wants: I tried to negotiate, but the USA is not willing to.
- North Korea will meet with Trump, be gentle, charismatic, fun and produce hours of videos and thousands of pictures to create this great show for the world news and especially for North Korea propaganda. And, if negotiations go south, what is likely, Kim Jong Un will have this incredible archive to use.
- Possible backstage movements of Russia, who is not interested in an alliance between North Korea and the USA.
- The last and most unlikely one is a move forward to create a Denuclearization Treaty that would be extremely restrictive (tighter than Iran's was) in order to assure peace in the region.